What Happens if Iran is Next? Succession to Khamenei

Following the events in Tunisia and Egypt, pundits, journalists and others couldn't help jump to the question: "Is Iran next?" or, perhaps more accurately, "Can we make Iran next?"

A new study from the RAND Corporation examining several different succession scenarios concludes that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's successor would likely maintain the status quo.

"Currently, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps have tremendous power, and will be in a good position to shape succession in the near future," said Alireza Nader, lead author of the study and an international policy analyst with RAND, in a released statement. "However, other factors, such as popular dissatisfaction with the regime, could curtail the Guards' role in determining succession."

The other potential, but less likely, scenarios include:

• Status quo—where Khamenei is followed by a leader like himself, possibly someone he hand-picks
• "Absolutist"—an absolute dictator with strong religious and political credentials supported by a cult of personality
• "Democratic"—a reformist leader who is more accountable to the republican institutions and the electorate than Khamenei
• Leadership council—an executive leadership group that replaces a single leader
• Abolition—the demise of the Supreme Leader position in favor of republicanism.

At 71, an aging Khamenei has been the highest political authority since June 1989, often bolstering an unpopular President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at important junctures. However, as the RAND report points out, rumours of poor health should suggest to U.S. policymakers that the time is now to consider an Iran without the stabilizing factor of Khamenei since the next supreme leader will largely determine the country's direction.

Nader says the three primary factors that will determine the nature of the of the next office include: the factions and personalities in positions of power and influence, the prevailing concept of the rule of the supreme jurisprudent, and the decisions and actions of Khamenei's personal network such as the Revolutionary Guards. Other influences include the anti-Ahmadinejad Green Movement, the women's rights movement, Iran's declining economy and Iranian relations with the United States.

Download "The Next Supreme Leader: Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran."