Think Tanked

CNAS' Andrew Exum Talks Afghanistan Strategy on C-SPAN

CNAS' Natural Security Wish List

Some people don't give their wish lists to Santa. CNAS Natural Security folks, Christine Parthemore and Will Rogers, have put their 2011 wish list up on the Natural Security blog. It's got 10 items and while none are easy, that's not going to deter them from trying.

This is the second year they've produced a list and this year they've gotten even more ambitious, adding two more items.

1. We wish for DOD to set a goal of managing a smooth transition beyond petroleum over the next 30 years. Sound familiar?
2. DOD should also designate a single COCOM as lead for the Arctic, as we recommended in April. Because the strategic importance of the Artic is only growing.
3. The Senate needs to ratify UNCLOS, and quickly. It is standing in the way of the U.S. government protecting U.S. interests everywhere from the South China Sea to the Arctic.
4. Building on 2010’s expansion of natural security into key national security documents, we hope to see more useful guidance for integrating these concerns into the work of the Combatant Commands. After all, they will be on the front lines in confronting the effects of climate change, managing the sticky side effects of energy competition, and other resource-related challenges. We expected greater analytical focus on the COCOMs after our April 2010 climate change report, but have been disappointed to date with the lack thereof.
5. A smart approach to “green alliances” from Obama administration. Incorporating resources and environmental issues into our international partnerships and formal alliance relationships is necessary and a positive step for a modern U.S. approach to security. It is also going to be difficult, with decent potential to back other countries into inefficient policies and tough political quandaries. For an example, see the natural security section to our 2010 Indonesia report.

Check out what the rest of the list entails at Natural Security.

CNAS Issues "Responsible Transition" Afghanistan Report

The Center for a New American Security (CNAS) has released a major new report today on U.S. strategy in Afghanistan by CNAS Senior Advisor and Senior Fellow Lieutenant General David W. Barno, USA (Ret.), former commander of U.S. and Coalition Forces in Afghanistan and Fellow Andrew Exum, a former Army Ranger and civilian advisor to General Stanley McChrystal.  

The 39-page report, "In Responsible Transition: Securing U.S. Interests in Afghanistan Beyond 2011," will be formally launched December 14, 2010 at an event featuring Barno, Exum and Bob Woodward, Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative journalist and author of Obama’s Wars.   

From the release:

...the authors lay out a strategy for the post-July 2011 phase of the war, define the U.S. troop presence and commitment beyond 2014, and offer operational and strategic guidance for protecting U.S. and allied long-term interests in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

In Responsible Transition, Barno and Exum provide policy recommendations - military and political - for how the United States and its NATO allies can get from summer 2011, when U.S. and coalition troops begin to draw down in Afghanistan, to 2014, when U.S. forces transition to a residual force and transfer full leadership of operations to Afghan security forces. Barno and Exum also consider "spoilers," or disruptive events, that could affect the success of any plan, including: a terror attack on U.S. soil originating in Pakistan; an adversarial Pakistan; a resurgent Taliban; and Afghan National Security Forces failure.

Key recommendations include:

• The United States and its allies should commit to a long-term presence in Afghanistan to safeguard vital interests beyond 2014.
• The United States and its allies should begin a phased transition, starting in July 2011, from a large-scale mission employing in excess of 140,000 troops to a residual force of 25,000-35,000 troops.
• United States troop presence beyond 2014 would be a residual force fully reorganized into an unconventional warfare task force (UWTF) that would guide military and counterterrorism operations.
• The United States and its allies should shift their direct investment in the government of Afghanistan away from Kabul and toward local governance.
• The United States should use greater political, military and economic leverage over its allies in Pakistan to drive more aggressive action against violent extremist organizations in the region.

Download "Responsible Transition."

Obama Names CNAS' Richard Danzig to President's Intelligence Advisory Board

Along with Daniel Meltzer of Harvard Law School, President Obama nominated Center for a New American Security's Chairman of the Board Richard Danzig to the President's Intelligence Advisory Board. Danzig is also a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. 

From the release:

Richard J. Danzig, Nominee for Member, President’s Intelligence Advisory Board
Richard J. Danzig is a senior advisor at the Center for a New American Security, the Center for Naval Analyses and the Center for Strategic and International Studies, where he serves as a consultant to the Departments of Defense and Homeland Security on terrorism. Dr. Danzig also served as a Senior Advisor to then-Senator Barack Obama on national security issues throughout his Presidential campaign. During the Clinton Administration, Dr. Danzig served as the 71st Secretary of the Navy and Under Secretary of the Navy. During the Carter Administration, Dr. Danzig served in the Department of Defense as a Deputy Assistant Secretary then as Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for Manpower, Reserve Affairs and Logistics.  Between his terms in public service, Dr. Danzig was a partner in the law firm Latham Watkins.  He is the Chairman of the Center for a New American Security's Board of Directors, a member of the Defense Policy Board, a Director of the RAND Corporation and the Partnership for Public Service. Dr. Danzig was awarded the Defense Distinguished Public Service Award, the highest Department of Defense civilian award, in 2001, 1997 and 1981. He received a B.A. from Reed College, a J.D. from Yale Law School, and Bachelor of Philosophy and Doctor of Philosophy degrees from Oxford University, where he was a Rhodes Scholar. 

Personnel Files: Washington Post's David Finkel to CNAS

The Center for a New American Security is announcing today that Pulitzer Prize winning Washington Post reporter David Finkel is joining the think tank as a Senior Writer in Residence.

From the release:

...Finkel is the author of the bestselling book The Good Soldiers, a ground-level account of an Army infantry battalion’s efforts to secure part of Baghdad during the 2007 surge in Iraq.

CNAS will host Finkel as he writes a second book that chronicles the return of the battalion’s soldiers after the end of their tour, exploring their struggles to reintegrate – what Finkel calls their “trip back to normalcy.” The book will be published by Sarah Crichton Books/Farrar, Straus and Giroux.

"The Good Soldiers is one of the best books written about the war in Iraq, or any war. David’s next book will highlight the human and societal costs of going to war, and I’m thrilled that he has chosen to write it at CNAS," said Nathaniel Fick, CNAS Chief Executive Officer, veteran of the current wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and author

of The New York Times bestseller One Bullet Away.

 

David Finkel’s writing complements CNAS’s ongoing work on the future of the U.S. military, particularly current projects on Military Wellness and Veterans Health, led by CNAS CEO Nathaniel Fick and CNAS Non-Resident Senior Fellow Nancy Berglass.  The Military Wellness and Veterans Health Initiatives focus on our nation’s capacity both to care for our troops and veterans and to address the impact of deployment on their families and communities.  Stay tuned for the forthcoming CNAS policy brief "America's Duty: The Imperative of a New Approach to Warrior and Veteran Care" by Nancy Berglass, who also serves as director of the Iraq Afghanistan Deployment Impact Fund, a grants program that has distributed nearly $250 million dollars to scores of nonprofit organizations serving the unmet needs of men, women and families impacted by deployment to Iraq and Afghanistan.

The CNAS Writers in Residence program provides some of America’s top national security and defense journalists the opportunity to complete longer book projects while benefiting from the full spectrum of the Center’s resources and expertise.  Previous Writers in Residence include Eric Schmitt and Thom Shanker, whose forthcoming book Counterstrike will be on shelves in 2011; David Cloud and Greg Jaffe, whose book The Fourth Star: Four Generals and the Epic Struggle for the Future of the United States Army was released October 2009; Tom Ricks, who penned The Gamble: General David Petraeus and the American Military Adventure in Iraq, 2006-2008; and David Sanger, who wrote The Inheritance: The World Obama Confronts and the Challenges to American Power.

Robert Kaplan on South Asia's Geography of Conflict

Applications: CNAS Next Generation National Security Leaders Program

Applications for the second run of the Next Generation National Security Leaders Program at the Center for a New American Security are due September 3rd. 

U.S. citizens between 25 and 32 years old, who possess a bachelor's degree with three years of professional experience are eligible. CNAS makes it very clear they are interested in members of the armed forces. 

From CNAS:

As part of its mission to prepare and foster the next generation of national security and defense leaders, the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) is pleased to announce the launch of its second annual Next Generation National Security Leaders Program.

For the second successive year, CNAS will gather potential future national security leaders to participate in a series of frank and open discussions on immediate and long-term national security and foreign policy challenges. The Next Generation National Security Leaders Program will consist of a bipartisan group of emerging analysts and practitioners who will participate in a series of events aimed at developing a shared understanding of the nations security interests and international priorities.

During the program, Next Generation Leaders will engage with influential figures in the national security field in a series of candid discussions on several of the most pressing issues the United States faces, as well as contribute to collaborative writing projects with their fellow Leaders.  Next Generation Leaders will also have the opportunity to participate in variety of CNAS-hosted events. 

The 2010-2011 program will again be led by CNAS President John Nagl and Steve Biegun, corporate officer and vice president of International Governmental Affairs for Ford Motor Company, former senior advisor to Senator John McCain, and CNAS advisory board member.

For full details and instructions on the application process, visit the CNAS page here.

Is Chinese Arrogance a Security Problem?

In a new article in The Diplomat, Patrick M. Cronin, Senior Advisor and Asia Security Program Senior Director at the Center for a New American Security, and Paul S. Giarra, President of Global Strategies and Transformation, argue that China's confidence has turned into arrogance and it has become a security problem.

China’s rising-power exuberance is becoming a problem.

There’s long been bipartisan policy support in the United States for emphasizing cooperation with China while minimizing competition. President Barack Obama, who has said that Sino-American relations would ‘shape the 21^st Century,’ subscribes to this precept. But it was also generally assumed that a re-emerging China would be intelligent and self-interested. Instead, China’s recent diplomatic and military assertiveness, apparently fuelled by overconfidence, is creating consternation—especially over freedom of the seas.

It’s logical that Chinese leaders would want a protracted period of quiescence rather than to draw attention to a gradual military build-up. China’s long history has focused on continental power and China’s eager, ‘let’s-do-business’ attitude has been successful around the globe.

But as China has become more influential, it has also become uncharacteristically assertive in the diplomatic arena. This assertiveness is nowhere more evident than with its naval power, and is prompting many to ask if it is now verging on the reckless, particularly over the South China Sea.

Read the full article at The Diplomat.

CNAS President Optimistic on Agfhanistan, Petraeus

In his Wall Street Journal op-ed today, Center for a New American Security President John Nagl makes a case for optimism in Afghanistan under Petraeus, if he follows a similar model he employed in Iraq. 

One important component: a strong Petraeus-Karzai relationship.

Gaining Mr. Karzai's acceptance—after he had resisted for a year—may be just as important for Gen. Petraeus as are the militias themselves. One of the hardest parts of a counterinsurgency campaign is the need to work by, with and through the political leadership of the host country. A combination of carrots, sticks and cajoling is always required, but not always fruitful.

Gen. Petraeus diligently mentored Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki, who was derided as weak and ineffective until he suddenly decided to send Iraqi Army units to clear insurgents from Basra, and personally took charge of the fighting there. Few signs suggest that Mr. Karzai will assume field command of the pending effort to squeeze the Taliban out of Kandahar. But Gen. Petraeus has already demonstrated the ability to get the Afghan president to do things that he would rather not. How well Gen. Petraeus is able to use that talent to improve the performance of Mr. Karzai's government—and that of Pakistan's—will likely prove decisive.

CNAS Experts on Obama's National Security Strategy

Just a bit ago, the Center for a New American Security offered a collection of statements from their expert staff on the newly released National Security Strategy from the Obama Administration.

Most of the CNAS assessments were quite glowing the administration's vision, but a couple were critical.

From Tom Ricks:

The proof of the National Security Strategy will be in the execution, which rarely rises to the level of the prose in the report.  Generally these documents prove to be lists of aspirations rather than genuine strategies that state who we are, what we want to do, how we want to do it, and what resources we will use to do it.

From Andrew Exum:

Considering the financial crisis from which our country is still emerging, I am surprised there is not more in the National Security Strategy about the environment of scarcity in which the United States now operates. Strategy is, in part, about setting goals, prioritizing those goals, and matching resources to each goal. Aside from the section about spending tax-payer money wisely - which seems more about reducing fraud, waste and abuse than anything else - there seems to be little acknowledgment that the United States might not be able to pursue all of our national security goals as vigorously as we might like in part due to spending constraints. I'm still trying to understand how the acknowledgment that the United States must address its deficit to ensure our future security squares with a bold statement like 'the United States of America will continue to underwrite global security.' That is an especially bold claim considering the fact that this document seems to consider security to include not just physical security but economic security, food security, medical security and addressing problems of governance and reducing poverty outside America's borders. This document leaves me unsure of what the administration's true priorities are heading into the rest of its term in office.

Check out the full range of CNAS comments here.